has been posted previously. Fantastic article on Economics of Geography.
I've spent a lot of time trying to map out the world with data and I've come to the same conclusions: Boston-Wash-NYC corridor (I would almost count in Toronto and Montreal as adjacent to it; I guess, then you could just simply call it the industrial Northeast), Pacific Northwest, Northern continental Europe (Northern France, Belgium, Netherlands, Northwest Germany). I also like the Southern Germany-Austria-Switzerland-Northern Italy cluster. The London cluster is overpriced IMHO, but still has excellent public schools. California seems overpriced and the state budget is in bad shape.
California seems overpriced and the state budget is in bad shape
i live in california and love it...i think in so many ways it is the best place in the world to live...but i must admit (with trepidation since i hold so many state bonds)...that the state is doomed.
the size of the fiscal crisis here is not "state size", its "nation size". but california cannot engage in printing money, deficits, or anything else a nation can do to temporarily ease through. tax revenues are dropping like a rock in every city in the state as EVERYONE lines up to get their house re-assessed to get lower taxes.
california was crushed in the housing bubble and prop 13 makes revenue collection even more inflexible. i personally intend to have my property taxes cut in HALF, which is actually accurate and fair given that houses on my street are now...half off. whatever happens i will be paying less in taxes by some amount. now repeat for tens of millions of people...
and there's no stock market windfall to offset the gloom. google and apple are just high-salary employers now. that won't save this state. suffice to say i think the state finances are in doomsday mode. thankfully my kids do not go to public schools...
> california was crushed in the housing bubble and prop 13 makes revenue collection even more inflexible.
Actually, prop 13 is the only reason most CA cities aren't declaring bankruptcy.
Prop 13 has two relevant provisions - a cap on property tax rates and a cap on the rate of growth of the taxable basis w/o a change of ownership or new construction. (IIRC, most/all bay area cites are at the cap.) When you buy a house, you know the most that you'll pay in taxes going forward.
When housing prices boom, Prop 13 means that tax revenues don't boom. It also means that when housing prices crash, tax revenues don't crash.
Yes, the taxes paid by folks who bought near the peak will drop with housing prices. However, the taxes paid by folks who bought long before the peak are continuing to grow because their taxable basis lags the market.
Prop 13 was passed in reaction to a previous boom - property taxes were going up 10-20% a year because that's what housing prices were doing. CA govts don't cut rates and they don't cut revenues either.
If CA cities/counties had been able to grow their tax revenues in proportion to the property values, do you really think that they'd be willing to let their revenues drop with property values? Of course not - they'd increase the tax rates.
There are really two "Midwests"-- and more if you count the plains/mountain states (I don't) as part of the Midwest. The rust-belt (Detroit, Milwaukee) is in bad shape, but Chicago, Minneapolis, Toronto are solid places. So are Madison and Ann Arbor-- top-5% mid-sized cities.
The Bay Area I would fold into the Pacific Northwest, since it's culturally a part of that region, although it has a lot of California's problems (expensive housing, budget crisis). It's more similar to Seattle than to L.A., I would say.
I've spent a lot of time trying to map out the world with data and I've come to the same conclusions: Boston-Wash-NYC corridor (I would almost count in Toronto and Montreal as adjacent to it; I guess, then you could just simply call it the industrial Northeast), Pacific Northwest, Northern continental Europe (Northern France, Belgium, Netherlands, Northwest Germany). I also like the Southern Germany-Austria-Switzerland-Northern Italy cluster. The London cluster is overpriced IMHO, but still has excellent public schools. California seems overpriced and the state budget is in bad shape.