I'm more of a doomsayer than a fan boy. But I think it's more like "AI will replace 50% of your juniors and 25% of your seniors and perhaps 50% of your do-nothing middle managers", And that's a fairly large number anyway.
100% in the doomers camp now, wish I could be as optimistic as these people who think AI is all hype but the last few weeks it's starting to finally be more productive to use these tools and I feel like this will be a short little window where the stuff I'm typing in and the review of whats coming out is still worth my salary.
I don't really see why anywhere near the number of great jobs this industry has had will be justifiable in a year. The only comfort is all the other industries will be facing the same issue so accomodations will have to be made.
I wouldn't be surprised if it is only software and creative jobs that die. Whilst I still find it expensive to buy a house, get food, and the grunt work will still need labor.
What that means for society where there are extremely rich people who owns resources and capital, and everyone else is only valued for their dexterity and physical labor (vs skills) I can only guess.
I do think the AI labs have potentially unleashed a society changing technology that ironically penalizes meritocracy and/or intelligence by making it less scarce. The jobs left will be the ones people avoided for a reason (health, risk, etc)
