If they can hold on for another 20 years, the PRC could probably have Taiwan without firing a shot.
The US isn't going to get back manufacturing capacity on China's scale, and without real long-term economic plans beyond "bet it all on AGI", what they do have is going to be further strained. They can pump pork into the defense industry specifically, but probably not forever. You can't make a functional economy out of twelve fighter-jet plants and 500,000,000 hectares of unsellable soy.
So over time, you've got a defense partner that's finding it harder and harder to play World Police on a grand scale, and a trading partner that's less and less wealthy and able to dictate terms. Eventually, Taipei will pick up a BRICS application form out of self-interest.
The US isn't going to get back manufacturing capacity on China's scale, and without real long-term economic plans beyond "bet it all on AGI", what they do have is going to be further strained. They can pump pork into the defense industry specifically, but probably not forever. You can't make a functional economy out of twelve fighter-jet plants and 500,000,000 hectares of unsellable soy.
So over time, you've got a defense partner that's finding it harder and harder to play World Police on a grand scale, and a trading partner that's less and less wealthy and able to dictate terms. Eventually, Taipei will pick up a BRICS application form out of self-interest.