> The key takeaway is that the United States does not have the stockpiles of munitions necessary to engage in a long-term conflict with China
I think this is missleading conclusion, my reading of the link is that it says that in 4 week of active phase, US stockpile will deplete, it doesn't assess what damage China will receive, will it have enough ships/airplanes after US activated thousands of munitions, and will it rebuild them faster than US will restock missiles inventory (99% not).
> US Navy is looking to outsource ship production to South Korea.
Here's a recent story about the outsourcing of ship production to South Korea[0]
I recommend that you take a look at this document[1] to get a better picture of the shortcomings of US munitions stockpiles and manufacturing capacity.
I'm not sure why you think that China, a nation renowned for their mass manufacturing capacity would be unable to rebuild equipment lost in a war over Taiwan. China absolutely dominates in steel production[2] and aluminum production[3] and no one compares to them in electronics manufacturing and assembly. They completely own the solar panel and battery markets and it seems that no one can compete with their electric cars.
While America keeps chipping away at its own soft power, institutions and manufacturing capacity China is building the juggernaut industrial capacity necessary to dominate their region.
> Here's a recent story about the outsourcing of ship production to South Korea[0]
its not for production but maintenance. Your link explicitly states that current law doesn't allow to produce Navy ships outside of US.
Furthermore, Koreans can't produce military ships for US simply because they can't produce such ships for themselves domestically, their newest destroyers have Korean hull, but propulsion, electronics, radars, many armaments are American: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sejong_the_Great-class_destroy...
> I'm not sure why you think that China, a nation renowned for their mass manufacturing capacity would be unable to rebuild equipment lost
I explained, it will be asymmetrical war: US will be targeting ships which cost way more than missiles cost.
Each of 4k tomahawk will target targets 10-100x cost of actual tomahawk (airplanes, power plants, docked ships).
Also, your previous report ignores old harpoon inventory, which if deployed in Taiwan will create denial zone for Chinese navy.
In the context of outsourcing ship production the original line I wrote was "It has become so dire that the US Navy is looking to outsource ship production to South Korea." I feel that the link that I have provided is a pretty solid source regarding the US making moves towards outsourcing ship production to South Korea and your nitpicking what I wrote and the source I provided doesn't add much to the conversation.
The point I'm trying to make with all of this is that the US simply lacks the industrial capacity to produce sufficient materiel for a protracted war with China. And not only does it currently lack the capacity, there is no indication that the political or social structures that dominate American discourse see this as a priority.
You describe this asymmetrical warfare technique of the US using missiles that have a fraction of the cost of the ships that they're targeting as if it's a unique strategy when it's the exact same thing that the Chinese are going to be doing.
The difference is that the Chinese have the ability to build many more missiles, and many more ships, and they're not nearly as exposed to cyber attacks and fifth column sabotage as the US is. So what will likely happen is they'll both survive the first round of engagements over Taiwan with the US narrowly winning and then the Chinese will rebuild more and faster and will win the next round of engagements. Or even worse the US will just let China have Taiwan because the political structure of the US is so unbelievably dysfunctional.
It's not like I want any of this to happen either. I'd love to live in a world where China was a non Authoritarian country that didn't have ambitions of dominating its neighbours but that just isn't the world we live in.
I find it dismaying that anytime I bring up my concerns about this matter online people are so quick to dismiss them with little thought. There are a lot of people who consider the US being the hegemonic military force of the plant to be a fundamental part of reality and they just can't fathom a scenario where that isn't the case.
Either way we're all going to find out in 18 months. I hope I'm wrong about this.
> your nitpicking what I wrote and the source I provided doesn't add much to the conversation.
lol, you wrote clearly: "Here's a recent story about the outsourcing of ship production to South Korea[0]"
I am confused how else it can be read as not "about the outsourcing of ship production to South Korea"
> if it's a unique strategy when it's the exact same thing that the Chinese are going to be doing.
they won't be doing this, they are surrounded by US military bases and don't have ability to project power to US territory, and US doesn't have plans to invade China, so ships don't need to come close to coastline.
sorry, ignored rest of your speculations, because imo they grounded in nothing.
I think this is missleading conclusion, my reading of the link is that it says that in 4 week of active phase, US stockpile will deplete, it doesn't assess what damage China will receive, will it have enough ships/airplanes after US activated thousands of munitions, and will it rebuild them faster than US will restock missiles inventory (99% not).
> US Navy is looking to outsource ship production to South Korea.
could you provide citation?