We had a pretty weird year in general. Harris did bad across most safe states but seemed to do much better than her average in swing states (not enough to win them, but much better than she did in non-competitive states)
Many election models rely heavily on historical correlation. States like OH and IN might vote quite differently but their swings tend to be in the same direction.
The weirdness this year (possibly caused by the Harris campaign having a particularly strong ground game in swing states) definitely challenged a lot of baked in assumptions of forecasts.
Many election models rely heavily on historical correlation. States like OH and IN might vote quite differently but their swings tend to be in the same direction.
The weirdness this year (possibly caused by the Harris campaign having a particularly strong ground game in swing states) definitely challenged a lot of baked in assumptions of forecasts.