What would the value of crashing a bunch of cargo planes be?
One plane could be believed to be an accident / inconclusive. So you crashed one plane, that's not getting you much.
Many planes would ... what? Again you don't get much if you crash a bunch of cargo planes, even passenger planes. It would be destructive and disruptive and horrible, but not crippling to any nation. The scale of being a pariah nation would just increase. What do you get out of that if you're Russia?
It seems more like something a smaller terrorist org would do, or a messed up cult.
Reminds me of The Wire when some gang members tried shooting someone on the wrong day (Sunday), in the presence of his mom while going to church, both being considered inappropriate by other gangs. The response was "good help is hard to find".
Essentially an escalatory action in response to US support in order to signal their seriousness about their territorial expansion.
It says... We can touch you in the United States and are willing to do it. The implication is that they might even be willing to conduct terrorist attacks against our civilians.
Could be a play that they thought might put them in a better negotiation position... If you can believe that.
This is my read as a civilian who follows war. I am not an expert.
Frankly, I posted this hoping to attract some discussion amongst those who might actually be able to provide a decent read.
I don't really buy into the idea that it puts them in a position to negotiate much. It would just escalate things, solidify support against them. If they've got hopes of fracturing the west, this would be the opposite.
I make no argument regarding whether their actions are effective or not. Only suggesting what they might be thinking are the reasons they take these actions.
Honestly if they had blown up our planes... I'd say there is a real chance we blow up that shiny building where they planned that.
It's even possible we told them exactly that and this is why the plot didn't continue.
I kind of feel it compares to MAD. I don't think they want to provoke a war but if they signal they are not afraid to engage political, civilian or economical targets then one must consider how they engage with them and what their response will be.
One plane could be believed to be an accident / inconclusive. So you crashed one plane, that's not getting you much.
Many planes would ... what? Again you don't get much if you crash a bunch of cargo planes, even passenger planes. It would be destructive and disruptive and horrible, but not crippling to any nation. The scale of being a pariah nation would just increase. What do you get out of that if you're Russia?
It seems more like something a smaller terrorist org would do, or a messed up cult.