In my experience, commonly orbits in the solar system are astoundingly accurate over centuries. This prediction is relatively soon, 2032.

So, we have (A) a crude orbit and only 1% prediction of hitting Earth or (B) an accurate prediction of 100% = 1. Between these two, (A) seemed too small and (B) too large. So, I asked.

This question seemed appropriate enough.

Reading the paper, sure, they have a lot of predictions for several decades to come with all the probabilities close to 1% and far from 100%. The paper gives some details on the difficulty of getting a very accurate orbit for the object. So, apparently the 1% is what they have in mind and their title, accurate.

So, if it hits, what might be the damage?

And it it does hit, what would be the probability of it hitting a densely populated area instead of ocean, desert, mountains, ...? Net, with the 1%, the risk of major damage seems quite small.

Hmm, what would the insurance industry think? Vegas?

If you detected 100 objects with a 1% chance to hit, you're actually very likely to be hit by more the 1. There's a lot of objects up there, fortunately the chances they hit us are a lot lower then that so far.