NASA has gotten a lot better at estimating risk, especially after two Shuttle explosions taught them the hard way that they were really bad at it.
Applying those methods to Apollo shows us just how lucky we are that we didn't lose any of them.
NASA claims that their risk of catastrophe on Artemis 2 is 1 in 400. They'd have to be wrong by a couple orders of magnitude to be comparable to the Apollo missions. I might not trust their 1 in 400 number, but I don't think they're off by 2 orders of magnitude.
The endless Starliner delays are another sign of this. They could launch Starliner with the helium leak and everything would probably be fine. But they're not. They've lost astronauts to "go fever" and have instituted a much more risk averse culture.
Applying those methods to Apollo shows us just how lucky we are that we didn't lose any of them.
NASA claims that their risk of catastrophe on Artemis 2 is 1 in 400. They'd have to be wrong by a couple orders of magnitude to be comparable to the Apollo missions. I might not trust their 1 in 400 number, but I don't think they're off by 2 orders of magnitude.
The endless Starliner delays are another sign of this. They could launch Starliner with the helium leak and everything would probably be fine. But they're not. They've lost astronauts to "go fever" and have instituted a much more risk averse culture.