Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

Only if you want to meaure the number of times you die on average. But you typically want to measure the risk of dying once over a career as a crew, and that is very much a function of how many times you roll the dice. Your probability of survival is 1-(prob of no crash per flight)^(flight count), and it is not linear. Whereas a passenger plays the game many less times.

If you don't take my made up numbers but wikipedia [1], and if I get my math right, B737 max has 4 accidents per millions flights, vs 0.2 for previous B737. That means that over a career of 15 years, working 200 days per year, 3 flights a day, a crew has a chance of dying of 3.54% with the Max vs 0.18% for the older models. 0.18% might be non material but 3.54% starts to be significant. (a passenger that takes 10 B737 max flights a year over that period only has a 0.06% probability to die).

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX#Accidents_and_i...



Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: