I'm nitpicking, but the expected value for a project with a 50/50 chance of eith... | Hacker News

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		xtreme on Jan 20, 2024 \| parent \| context \| favorite \| on: Culture Change at Google I'm nitpicking, but the expected value for a project with a 50/50 chance of either (a) making $3m or (b) losing $1m is $1m. Not $2m.

BossingAround on Jan 21, 2024 | [–]

Just wondering, is it because 3 * 0.5 + (-1) * 0.5 = 1.5 - 0.5 = $1M?

zamfi on Jan 21, 2024 | | [–]

yes

zamfi on Jan 20, 2024 | [–]

Ugh, you are totally right. I originally had making $5m but then changed it and not the EV :facepalm:

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