Okay, let's stipulate that Sam was maneuvering to get full board control. Then the independent directors were probably worried that -- sooner or later -- Sam would succeed. With Sam fully in charge the non-profit goals would be completely secondary to the commercial goals. This was unacceptable to the independent directors and Ilya and so they ousted Sam before he could oust them?
That's a clear motive. Sam and the independent directors were each angling to get rid of the other. The independent directors got to a majority before Sam did. This at least explains why they fired Sam in such a haphazard way. They had to strike immediately before one of the board members got cold feet.
Besides explaining the haphazardness, that would also nicely explain why they didn't want to elaborate publicly on why they "had" to let him go -- "it was either him or us" wouldn't have been popular given his seeming popularity.
Wild guess: If the board stands its ground, appoints a reasonable new CEO, and employees understand that OpenAI will continue to be a hot startup, most of them will stay with the company due to their equity
Except, the facts behind Sam's firing will inevitably come out, and it won't be possible to brush it under the carpet. I think they hoped the facts wouldn't come out, and they could just give a hand-wavey explanation, but that's clearly not going to happen. It seems they have well and truly shot themselves in the feet, and they will likely have to be replaced now.
If I'm correct then the board is fine with getting replaced, they just don't want Sam to have total control. Many of the candidates for independent director are friendly with Sam and will happily give him the keys to the kingdom. It's probably extremely difficult to find qualified independent board members who don't have ties to Sam.
"Sam was trying to censor legitimate concerns the board had with regards to the safety of the technology and actively tried to undermine the board and replace it with his own puppets."
If that is indeed true they did a mistake by saying something vague imo.
That's a clear motive. Sam and the independent directors were each angling to get rid of the other. The independent directors got to a majority before Sam did. This at least explains why they fired Sam in such a haphazard way. They had to strike immediately before one of the board members got cold feet.