Value meaning roughly revenue, not profit.

But estimating revenue is just as much of a shot in the dark as estimating effort, and if the effort is great enough it will cancel out the revenue.

The variation in effort is orders of magnitude smaller than that in value. Great value is very rarely canceled out by high effort and low value almost always cancel out low effort.

If revenue from a venture were so predictable you wouldn’t see the Funko Pop company destroying tons of inventory but you do.