If we want to move the needle in a meaningful way (CO2 wise), heat pumps and solar panels need to get better, cheaper, easier to install, and more available.
Where I live, driving a heat pump is more expensive than burning gas, from a purely economical POV. Our cost ratio per kW/h for electricity:gas is 3.5:1 right now, but COP for consumer heat pumps in real-world usage is just 2.6 (Yeah they all claim a COP of at least 3, but those are as realistic as ICE fuel economy ratings.) Those ratios need to at least match in order for a heat pump to make any kind of financial sense.
Those heat pumps for a mid sized house cost €15k right now. On back order for 12+ months.
Disregarding differences in NG price between utilities and households, I see different numbers than that. 60% efficient NG turbines, onto a 85% grid, and a 2.6 COP at home means no NG furnace can compete until the weather hits winter lows. I don’t see how it can make it worse.
Where I live, driving a heat pump is more expensive than burning gas, from a purely economical POV. Our cost ratio per kW/h for electricity:gas is 3.5:1 right now, but COP for consumer heat pumps in real-world usage is just 2.6 (Yeah they all claim a COP of at least 3, but those are as realistic as ICE fuel economy ratings.) Those ratios need to at least match in order for a heat pump to make any kind of financial sense.
Those heat pumps for a mid sized house cost €15k right now. On back order for 12+ months.