Probably didn't help that an Air Force general was openly and loudly proclaiming that war is inevitable. I looked up some speeches of his, and he is off the rails, like the German general in All Quiet Along the Western Front.
I mean, it's nothing compared to the internal speeches that China gives its troops. Heck it's nothing compared to the speeches Xi gives internally to troops. Chinese troops are currently training on their missile corp on models of US aircraft carriers.
That's been going on for decades, and supposedly the balloons are nothing new. What's changed is the USA response, in terms of the American general's rhetoric and the coverage and downing of balloons. So there's been a shift on the part of the USA.
That's a lie. It started in 2012 but it took until the middle of the 2010s before they started openly threatening war. This is not some status quo situation that the US General upended. China's been escalating toward war since Xi took over. I mean before Xi it was hide your strength bide your time.
Different than threatening war with US. Edit and yes, it stepped up in 2012 when Xi took over. Started with Japan and has migrated to aggression against US and allies.
Edit: Taiwan crisis wasn't great, but it ended when the US sailed an aircraft carrier through Strait of Taiwan. So while it wasn't great, it wasn't like they were threatening war against US.
Some of the propaganda videos people are posting on douyin (OG tiktok) are hilarious (even if the historical events they're inspired by are very serious). It's interesting to compare foreign propaganda about the US military to US propaganda about foreign militaries.
Why would you need to police population in case of war for returning Taiwan? It will be very popular war and you definitely won't need to lock people down.
Look at Russia as an example. The war has been longer and less popular than expected and economic sanctions have hurt the working class the most.
China imports 66%-75% of its oil. That would drop dramatically in a hot war, as oil imports via the South China Sea would likely be blocked. This would require any imports to sail around Australia, which would likely be stopped by the US.
Russia would happily sell China oil, but it doesn't produce nearly enough to cover the gap.
If anything, war is much more popular in Russia than expected. There are no widespread protests, draft went ok, etc. Putin is still popular.
I do not think oil is such a big problem. China import is 10mln barrels while Russia exports is 5mln barrels, Kazakhstan is 1.2mln barrels. I am sure they can transport Iranian oil if needed. What will also happen is that Russia will buy oil on international market to resell to China. There is no infrastructure now to transport that much oil but it can be built surprisingly fast. Germany just demonstrated that it's possible to built LNG terminal in six months. If you ignore property rights and all enviromental regulation and enlist military you can built trans-asia pipeline in a few months. China can also import oil thru Vietnam.
Like everything I think this is at least a half truth. COVID did happen but probably not intentionally. And then China (And a few other countries) saw it as a great excuse to try a few things out on the general population and see what they could get away with.
As with speculation about US Covid measures being some kind of training or testing for god-knows-what crazy thing, the political and economic costs of the measures are far too high for those to make any sense as major motivations.
My understanding is their vaccine doesn't work at all, they don't have a strong emergency medical care system, thus it was the only real option for them.
Parent is presumably talking about recent comments by Gen. Mike Minihan (Air Mobility Command).
IMHO, people/news are blowing it out of proportion.
If the boss of FedEx said we're going to end up in a war with China, how much does that say about what defense contractors are doing?
What it was probably actually about was shocking the troops assigned to AMC, establishing an important mission and raising morale, and declaring business as usual was no longer acceptable.
Gotta be creative to make people excited about moving supplies.
See also: every ridiculous statement by every startup CEO in a bubble, ever
> Minihan said in the memo that because both Taiwan and the U.S. will have presidential elections in 2024, the U.S. will be “distracted,” and Chinese President Xi Jinping will have an opportunity to move on Taiwan.
You need to read the full memo, sent out as an email and watch his prior speeches. The memo appears to have been admonished by actual national security experts. Irregardless of the accuracy, there are better ways to handle these things, and he doesn't seem to have proper authority to make those statements.
Would be great if just more people had read this great book nowadays (and please, not watch that super bad recent movie that doesn't deserve to bear the same title (: ).
And cannot belief statesman proclaiming that now everywhere :( War should always be seen as evitable, at least that belief needs to hold up til the last second.. and even further. But who am I...
I'd say it feels like a return to the era of cold war tensions but I wouldn't know, I was born around when the Berlin Wall fell. What say you older HNers, is this what it was like?
I would say the tensions seem similar, but the consequences seem different.
In the 80s, it felt like you might find yourself vaporized or living in a nuclear apocalypse hellscape at any moment, likely due to a misunderstanding or malfunction.
These days it seems like we're more likely to just be in a long-term adversarial position with likely proxy wars.
I feel like the WWII and Cold War eras were more about existence, whereas these days the aggression is more about how much more bounty do we want. Look at the Chinese land grabs around disputed islands versus Japan. They don't need them, but it would be nice to have them.
The whole thing just seems like a bunch of unnecessary, ego-driven B.S. on every side.
It feels to me like things are just starting to spool up. Unlike during my youth, I think the playing field is much more tilted in the United States favor.
I had lots of nightmares about seeing a bright orange flash in the window back in my youth. I've had a few recently.
If they decide to take out the Steel Works in Gary, I'll be toast. If not, fallout is something that can be avoided by staying inside, away from exterior walls and the roof, and waiting it out for at least a week.
I've had Potassium Iodide in stock for my child's use since the Fukushima meltdown... I bought a new bottle when Ukraine kicked off.
The Cold War had expectations, guardrails, rules. Those don't exist in the current setup. China didn't even pick up the emergency hotline in the first balloon crisis.
From first approximation, there are 2 major questions to initiating a conflict.
1. Will I be able to stay in power? (Related: Will my populace support this war? Will my economy keep functioning?)
2. Will I end the conflict with more power / prestige / resources? (Related: How expensive will the conflict be in blood and treasure?)
Most of the things the West are doing over Ukraine are to make the "Related" answers less palatable. Very few people are calculating enough to climb to power, then risk everything on a gamble with bad odds.
If China gets serious about Kinmen and Matsu, then everyone should start worrying.
In the 80s, I resided on a US Military base in West Germany. Currently, I feel like the world is getting closer to World War III, which is the closest experience I have had in my lifetime. There is ongoing conflict in Europe involving a country that possesses nuclear weapons.
Additionally, tensions are escalating with China and the economy seems unstable. I sincerely hope that reasonable minds will be able to prevent any further escalation of these conflicts, but there is always the possibility of an unintentional incident that could lead to an expansion of these wars.
The Cold War wasn't uniform of course, there were periods of greatly increased tension and periods of relative relaxation (e.g. Détente.) What we have now is somewhere in the middle, I'd say on the peaceful/Détente side of the scale.
Honestly, I've been watching this unfold since 2012 and the point where we are now is pretty bleak. Unless something intervenes to change the course of where things are going, we're headed for a bad place. It's bleak to the point where experts on both sides (Chinese and US) seem resigned to conflict.
What say you older HNers, is this what it was like?
The Cold War was a lot scarier than what we have now. In the back of your mind, every day you thought that today could be the day we all get wiped out.
I'm not too worried about Russia or China starting anything nuclear these days. Russia invade Scandinavia? Sure. China invade Taiwan? Absolutely. But I'm not worried that they'll nuke someone else from a distance.
I was a teenager in the 80s. It’s hard to say how similar these events are, at least to me.
Information and and disinformation travels so much faster and so much more thoroughly these days that it’s hard to compare.
For example, in the 80s, I couldn’t even tell you what Russia looked like through photographs. there was just very little available information.
There was a big gray outline of the Soviet union on my high school history class wall, and that was about it. I had seen a few pictures of the Kremlin …the onion domes and what not. And maybe I had seen one photo of Brezhnev shown every so often on the news, but that was about it.
It’s amazing how much things have changed as far as the wealth of information is concerned.
So I’m not really answering your question, but the sheer magnitude of the lack of information … let’s say about four decades ago… is something that I really don’t see pointed out much so I thought you might find it interesting.
So in the 80s, the Soviet union was worrisome for the most part. But mostly it was just the blackest of black boxes to me.
