While a third of COVID-19 fatalities were people using nursing homes and by definition not employed, and the over 65 cohort was 90% of fatalities, hundreds of thousands of people left life as well as the workforce. Some seniors can’t afford to retire or prefer to keep a job. The most dangerous job by virus morbidity was line cook, a service/“essential worker” job.
Then add in those disabled by the virus.
Indirect effects include “not working” people who were incapacitated by the virus who normally babysat their grandkids enabling a parent to work (or they’re sheltering in place instead of babysitting). School closures forced many working parents to quit. People who already had a pre-existing condition or high risk occupation retired early in the face of an unknown virus with early estimates of 2% fatality and 10% for old people (we now know this was inflated due to testing not keeping up with spread). Service workers were laid off and had to move on to other jobs. Many used the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance as runway to a better industry, go to college, or just work less. The prospect of mortality shifted people’s time-money trade off toward working less.
The government restricted immigration and many foreigners who could come did not want to work in a highly infected country.
This is all overlaid on a long term decrease in the workforce participation rate due to baby boomer retirements.
Then add in those disabled by the virus.
Indirect effects include “not working” people who were incapacitated by the virus who normally babysat their grandkids enabling a parent to work (or they’re sheltering in place instead of babysitting). School closures forced many working parents to quit. People who already had a pre-existing condition or high risk occupation retired early in the face of an unknown virus with early estimates of 2% fatality and 10% for old people (we now know this was inflated due to testing not keeping up with spread). Service workers were laid off and had to move on to other jobs. Many used the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance as runway to a better industry, go to college, or just work less. The prospect of mortality shifted people’s time-money trade off toward working less.
The government restricted immigration and many foreigners who could come did not want to work in a highly infected country.
This is all overlaid on a long term decrease in the workforce participation rate due to baby boomer retirements.