Unless China's clearly stated policy that recognizes Taiwan as a part of China changes, it isn't really a black swan event.
It's more like an increasingly active volcano. It might not blow up tomorrow, but if you deliberately built a house on its edges, it would be hard to sympathize with you when it finally does go kaput.
That assumes the only possible way the China-Taiwan issue can be resolved is some kind of event that would disrupt the production, ie. war or at least blockade of Taiwan.
Not the person you're replying to, but if I ran a chip business (or a country with a lot of military/economic tech dependent on chips-- IE most countries), it would certainly be something you'd want to de-risk if you could. Sure it's not the only possible outcome. But it's a realistic outcome, and one that has a ton of downside if it happens.
If I'm running a country or a multibillion dollar business, I'd certainly not want to leave my future wellbeing to the good sense of two powers with a gigantic historical axe to grind.
It's more like an increasingly active volcano. It might not blow up tomorrow, but if you deliberately built a house on its edges, it would be hard to sympathize with you when it finally does go kaput.