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There is really nothing to back that claim. There are plenty of other companies in similar sectors (ridesharing, transportation, food delivery) in the US and beyond with similar valuations and no self driving ambitions or technology. Uber's self driving research has been seen from day 1 as an expensive hobby, nothing more.

A company which can achieve level 5 automation and has the capability to roll it out worldwide is worth a hell of a lot more than $60 billion.




Okay, so in the extreme case Uber's self driving division is estimated to be worth ~$7 billion? That proves my point more than it refutes it. Their stock has fluctuated more than that this past month.


That $7 bn valuation came only a year after the disastrous 2018 crash which forced them to shut down the entire program for months, with months of of lurid news stories highlighting failure after failure. Probably a low point, actually.

The developing narrative seems to be that self-driving was a longshot that could have paid off hugely, had it worked out, but it's been plagued with problems and it just seems very unlikely to pay off now. But still not zero, since no one else has shipped anything.

Investors probably valued it like (0.7% chance of success * 1 trillion upside = 7 billion).




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