But the point of this thread is discussing why countermeasures are justified. I'm saying that you should expect a disaster if no countermeasures are deployed -- which is exactly what you're saying too.
The subject of this whole discussion is that there's a travel restriction being put in place. This is why I believe promoting numbers that were arrived at prematurely (I would argue unethically, with the intention of being 'first' in the news) and that specifically don't account for countermeasures to be a bad idea.
We should be trying to promote risk assessments that are situationally correct.
> Summary: Should have said 40-70% of adults in a situation without effective controls.
There's an enormous difference between 40-70% of everyone and 20-60% of adults - specifically if no countermeasures are deployed.