Well, most of that is accurate.

Also forfeiture doesn't account for the fact that you may have paid capital gains tax. I feel like they really shafted me on that one.

Did you actually serve the full two years? That would've had you getting out pretty recently.

Federal sentences are able to be reduced to 85% with good time. It is also possible to participate in a residential drug treatment program to get up to 12 months off of your sentence. Additionally, they typically send you to a privately operated halfway house near the end of your sentence. Halfway house time can vary widely. Participation in the residential program guarantees you at least 4 months in a halfway house. While at the halfway house you can go out into the community socially, for work, and to live at home for up to 48 continuous hours. From the halfway house you are also capable of being placed on full time home confinement. You become eligible when you have 10% of your sentence left. Occasionally more well-known types, such as politicians, are sent to home confinement earlier. This is supposedly because of "security issues" at the halfway house.

I was sentenced in March of 2018 and self-surrendered at FCI Morgantown on May of 2018. I participated in the residential program and left in May of 2019. I am fully released in October of 2019. I currently live at the halfway house. You need an ankle monitor to go on home confinement and my place of employment is not compatible with an ankle monitor. Unfortunately, the BOP requires you to pay 25% of your gross income to the halfway house while you reside there.

Edit: I can't edit my original comment. I'd also like to add that Matt Levine's wife works at the Federal Defenders of NY office.