Apparently you have read all the same references as I: without his maternal network, it is quite unlikely that Gates would have ever been in the position to suggest Kildall. Or to later not suggest Paterson as replacement, but instead resell him/his work for the markup that made Microsoft.
Even if that network wasn't actively involved at all (e.g. by notifying Bill of the opportunity to supply BASIC, I think it is highly unlikely that it want involved at least that amount), the buyers at IBM would definitely have been aware of his family ties and unconsciously or not have awarded more default trust than to a random stranger. It is also not unlikely that Microsoft was given a chance in hope of currying favors with a certain person high in their own org chart or in fear of negative repercussions. Both the hoping/fearing and the favors/repercussions don't even have to happen voluntarily or consciously, it's hard enough to suppress those effects when you become aware of them and don't want to be that kind of person.
Even then: the Kildall negotiations evaporated because of superficial formalities (fear of signing an NDA, according to wiki), almost like a language barrier between corporate and upstart. Gates would have either not been given the same lawyer treatment or not have been intimidated by it since that culture was not foreign to him.
NDAs are normal, I sign them all the time, and I have no "pedigree" and never went to Hahvahd and my parents were lower middle class.
The fact is IBM passed over pedigree Gates and went to Kildall FIRST and Kildall was offered the deal FIRST. All Kildall had to do was say "yes". The notion that one had to be born wealthy to get that deal is simply false.
Sure, but why was the NDA not signed? Fear that the big guy would screw over the little guy, inability to tell normal behavior from exploitative. The Kildalls were entering a foreign culture (not by nationality, but by corporateness/class) and blundered. The person who was more at home with the culture then got the deal, despite not even having a product. That's exactly how the family advantage works, not some comically evil "sorry you are not from a sufficiently important family, no contract for you".
You're delving into sheer speculation. Exactly what went wrong at their meeting is not known, many stories about it have circulated, the NDA thing is just one of them.
Kildall was not some ignorant yokel from the backwoods. Besides, titans of the computer industry do deals with yokels all the time.
In fact, Kildall did later make a deal with IBM to sell an IBM branded CPM/86 for the PC. Consumers had a choice between IBM PC-DOS, and IBM CPM/86. The former was $40, the latter $240. People (like me) chose the cheaper one, because nobody could explain what was better about CPM/86. And the rest is history.
You are absolutely right about speculation. But so is the assumption that it all did not matter at all and the WIndows dominance would have happened in just the same way had Gates been a farmboy (I'm exaggerating a bit, you never claimed that). But in dubio pro reo is not applicable, since nobody is accused: it's not a crime to get along better with some group than someone else.
Maybe that is the misunderstanding that kept this discussion alive for so long: I'm not trying to privilege-shame anyone, just questioning the claim that it did not make a difference at all. (Actually I think that privilege-shaming is a really stupid concept, it won't ever achieve more than make its targets bitter or cynical, if it has an effect at all. It's not wrong to take an opportunity, just don't force it through improper means)
Even if that network wasn't actively involved at all (e.g. by notifying Bill of the opportunity to supply BASIC, I think it is highly unlikely that it want involved at least that amount), the buyers at IBM would definitely have been aware of his family ties and unconsciously or not have awarded more default trust than to a random stranger. It is also not unlikely that Microsoft was given a chance in hope of currying favors with a certain person high in their own org chart or in fear of negative repercussions. Both the hoping/fearing and the favors/repercussions don't even have to happen voluntarily or consciously, it's hard enough to suppress those effects when you become aware of them and don't want to be that kind of person.