It's absolutely amazing how hostile Google is to releasing billing options that are reasonable, controllable, or even fucking understandable.
I want to do relatively simple things like:
1. Buy shit from you
2. For a controllable amount (ex - let me pick a limit on costs)
3. Without spending literally HOURS trying to understand 17 different fucking products, all overlapping, with myriad project configs, api keys that should work, then don't actually work, even though the billing links to the same damn api key page, and says it should work.
And frankly - you can't do any of it. No controls (at best delayed alerts). No clear access. No real product differentiation pages. No guides or onboarding pages to simplify the matter. No support. SHIT LOADS of completely incorrect and outdated docs, that link to dead pages, or say incorrect things.
I'm not sure this matters. Enterprise is always slow to move anyways, and frankly, not usually worth the trouble for early startups.
What happens instead is that the new cheaper competitor proves themselves in the 1-10 seat company range for a few years. Then 5 to 10 years later, when the enterprise is evaluating renewals again, they go "Why are you so much more expensive? Look "X-two-guys" over there only charge 5% as much as you for the same product!" to the current SaaS they buy from.
Will they all move? No. But enough will, eventually.
This is my take as well. Everyone (correctly, in my opinion) assumes that customers won't bother to recreate a SaaS themselves with AI because it requires at least some skill, time, and knowledge.
But SaaS doesn't die because of all the customers creating one-off solutions themselves. It does the "desktop program" -> "mobile app" pricing transition.
It drops monumentally in price because now a very small (sub five) group can clone an experience and charge pennies on the dollar.
Why pay $15/month/user if some other reasonably stable company offers you $1/month/user?
If the other company is "equally stable" then pricing offers leverage sure.
But there are lot of situations were _any_ license costs in some given range are so trivial nobody actually cares wether it's $15 / month or $1 / month.
There are B2B customers who are ready to pay license premium for known brand vendor, even if they would use just a subset of the available features. Change is always a risk, internal efforts are better spent than counting beans, etc.
This is absolutely true, but also not that important.
Again - I'm not saying "All SaaS products are going to immediately go away". In the same way that all desktop purchases didn't immediately dry up in response to mobile apps.
But some customers are extremely price sensitive. And some customers who aren't price sensitive now, become price sensitive at some point.
Most new entrants to an existing market explicitly don't win by trying to engage the large enterprise customers. It's a shitshow of misaligned interests, checklist style purchasing decisions, unreasonable demands, custom solutions, etc...
They win by being a decent product at a decent price point for the 1 to 10 seat company range. The people who are both buying and using the software personally. With their own money, not a corporate card.
Eventually, the SaaS catering to enterprise has to actually explain their value to those users, and often it's basically zero: they're more expensive because they have all that cruft enterprises need, not because they're a better value for solo/small business.
So the legacy player starts to see serious churn. Retention becomes problematic. New user growth slows. Prices have to go up to maintain existing profits, which just drives more small folks away.
And then a decade later you have an overpriced enterprise only solution, which may absolutely still have a couple of large customers who won't switch, but who is otherwise essentially a legacy product on the road to death.
And then the enterprise customers start looking at why they spend so much compared to the other vendors for a legacy product, and they start bleeding away too.
This is a tempting (and not completely false) shortcut, but often you don’t compete for customer’s wallets.
For many companies, a lower price is often not the reason they switch.
They stay because of the time invested in the current solution, the integration in their pipelines etc.
I don't really think we need to forgive student loans - I think they should absolutely be dischargeable through bankruptcy, though.
Bankruptcy isn't a "get out of jail free" card - it puts a huge burden on a student relatively soon after graduating that makes it harder to start a family or buy a home. So it incentives are still aligned for the students taking the loans.
But the option that a student defaults brings some real light and transparency into a loan system that just feels wildly disconnected from reality right now. If a student can't pay the loan back with the job options in the field and is like to default... don't issue the loan.
I think it's absolutely abusive that student debt can't be discharged, and is pretty heinous as policy.
Yeah it's pretty amazing that we have loans which you can never escape and yet have high interest rates in spite of that. If I cannot declare bankruptcy, then at the least the interest rate should be 0%, appropriately reflecting the risk.
> I don't really think we need to forgive student loans.
Neither do I. I was happy with the status quo ante Trump where many classes of public servant could get their student debts forgiven after on the order of ten years of service. (An imperfect program with too many disqualifying loopholes, but it was better than nothing. Now, almost no one qualifies.) The Overton window has foreclosed on that kind of solution to the problem, however. Even military personnel have been disqualified from attending certain schools as part of their meager education benefit.
> Bankruptcy isn't a "get out of jail free" card
Indeed. One’s mid-twenties are arguably the worst period of one’s life to live with damaged credit.
> I think it's absolutely abusive that student debt can't be discharged, and is pretty heinous as policy.
If you want to customize your DE a lot - Gnome isn't for you.
If you just want a clean and productive environment by default... Gnome is great.
Once you stop fighting it, sigh, and go with the flow... modern Gnome is genuinely pleasant in that I spend almost zero time thinking about it, and shit just works.
I still run other DEs for some specific purposes where "general use" isn't the goal, but I can reliably hand non-technical family members a machine with Gnome and they don't have to come ask me a bunch of questions.
My problem with GNOME (after having used it as my main desktop on my Linux systems for many years) is that it removes some really useful features and they are not just expert features, but also features that non-technical users are used to, such as system tray icons and menu bars. You can bring them back with GNOME Extensions, but for instance, the system tray icon extensions are very buggy.
KDE on the other hand just has these and is also great out-of-the-box (I pretty much run stock KDE).
Anyone who lived in a browser was fine a decade ago.
At this point... it's basically anyone who doesn't want to play competitive mp games with poorly implemented anti-cheat, or who doesn't have niche legacy hardware (ex - inverters, CNCs, oscopes, etc).
Steam tackling the gaming side of things has basically unlocked the entire Windows consumer software ecosystem for linux. It's incredibly easy to spin up windows only applications with nothing but GUI only software on most distros at this point.
Crazy how much better a system with a modern linux kernel and Gnome or KDE is than Windows 11. I'm at the point where I also prefer it to macOS... which is funny since I think Gnome was basically playing "copy apple" for a bit there 5 years ago, but now has really just become the simpler, easier to use DE.
The LLM generated the response that was expected of it. (statistically)
And that's a function of the data used to train it, and the feedback provided during training.
It doesn't actually have anything at all to do with
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"It generated a take-down style blog post because that style is the most common when looking at blog posts criticizing someone."
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Other than that this data may have been over-prevalent during its training, and it was rewarded for matching that style of output during training.
To swing around to my point... I'd argue that anthropomorphizing agents is actually the correct view to take. People just need to understand that they behave like they've been trained to behave (side note: just like most people...), and this is why clarity around training data is SO important.
In the same way that we attribute certain feelings and emotions to people with particular backgrounds (ex - resumes and cvs, all the way down to city/country/language people grew up with). Those backgrounds are often used as quick and dirty heuristics on what a person was likely trained to do. Peer pressure & societal norms aren't a joke, and serve a very similar mechanism.
At this point subsidizing Chinese open-weights vendors by paying for them is just the right thing to do. Maybe they too might go closed-weights when they become SotA, but they're now pretty close and haven't done it.
> Like most things - assume the "20/100/200" dollar deals that are great now are going to go down the enshitification route very rapidly.
I don’t assume this at all. In fact, the opposite has been happening in my experience: I try multiple providers at the same time and the $20/month plans have only been getting better with the model improvements and changes. The current ChatGPT $20/month plan goes a very long way even when I set it to “Extra High” whereas just 6 months ago I felt like the $20/month plans from major providers were an exercise in bouncing off rate limits for anything non-trivial.
Inference costs are only going to go down from here and models will only improve. I’ve been reading these warnings about the coming demise of AI plans for 1-2 years now, but the opposite keeps happening.
> Inference costs are only going to go down from here and models will only improve. I’ve been reading these warnings about the coming demise of AI plans for 1-2 years now, but the opposite keeps happening.
This time also crosses over with the frontier labs raising ever larger and larger rounds. If Anthropic IPO (which I honestly doubt), then we may get a better sense of actual prices in the market, as it's unlikely the markets will continue letting them spend more and more money each year without a return.
> The current ChatGPT $20/month plan goes a very long way
It sure does and Codex is great, but do you think they'll maintain the current prices after/if it eventually dominates Claude Code in terms of marketshare and mindshare?
I think we'll always have multiple options providing similar levels of service, like we do with Uber and Lyft.
Unlike Uber and Lyft, the price of inference continues to go down as datacenter capacity comes online and compute hardware gets more powerful.
So I think we'll always have affordable LLM services.
I do think the obsession with prices of the entry-level plans is a little odd. $20/month is nothing relative to the salaries people using these tools receive. HN is full of warnings that prices are going to go up in the future, but what's that going to change for software developers? Okay, so my $20/month plan goes to $40/month? $60/month? That's still less than I pay for internet access at home.
I have a lot of respect for Canonical for driving a distro that was very "noob friendly" in an ecosystem where that's genuinely hard.
But I mostly agree with you. Once you get out of that phase, I don't really see much value in Ubuntu. I'd pick pretty much anything else for everything I do these days. Debian/Fedora/Alpine on the server. Arch on the desktop.
Yeah, the folks in here recommending Debian as a solution to this problem are insane.
I love Debian, it's a great distro. It's NOT the distro I'd pick to drive things like my laptop or personal development machine. At least not if you have even a passing interest in:
- Using team communication apps (slack/teams/discord)
- Using software built for windows (Wine/Proton)
- Gaming (of any form)
- Wayland support (or any other large project delivering new features relatively quickly)
- Hardware support (modern linux kernels)
I'd recommend it immediately as a replacement for Ubuntu as a server, but I won't run it for daily drivers.
Again - Arch (or it's derivatives) are basically the best you can get in that space.
I think Debian Stable, Ubuntu LTS, and derivatives thereof are particularly poor fits for general consumers who are more likely to try to run the OS on a random machine they picked up from Best Buy that’s probably built with hardware that kernels any older than what ships in Fedora are unlikely to support.
The stable/testing/etc distinction doesn't really help, either, because it's an alien concept to those outside of technical spheres.
I strongly believe that the Fedora model is the best fit for the broadest spread of users. Arch is nice for those capable of keeping it wrangled but that's a much smaller group of people.
I'll add - I think the complexity is somewhat "over-stated" for Arch at this point. There was absolutely a period where just reading the entire install guide (much less actually completing it) was enough to turn a large number of even fairly technical people off the distro. Archinstall removed a lot of that headache.
And once it's up, it's generally just fine. I moved both my spouse and my children to Arch instead of Windows 11, and they don't seem particularly bothered. They install most of their own software using flatpaks through the store GUI in Gnome, or through Steam, the browser does most of the heavy lifting these days anyways.
I basically just grab their machine and run `pacman -Syu` on it once in a while, and help install something more complicated once in a blue moon.
Still requires someone who doesn't mind dropping into a terminal, but it's definitely not what I'd consider "all that challenging".
YMMV, but the issue I usually run into with Arch is that unless you watch patch notes like a hawk, updates will break random things every so often, which I found quite frustrating. The risk of this increases the longer the system goes without updates due to accumlated missing config file migrations and such.
Even as someone who uses the terminal daily it's more involved than I really care for.
I agree that they are a poor fit for a random user especially for debian install being not as intuitive but for supporting hardware I disagree.
I decided to try debian stable on my brand new gaming PC and it worked fine out of the box. Combine with steam flatpak for gaming and I have less issues than my friends who game on Arch.
I agree though that Fedora is probably a good general recommendation.
Over time I evolved to Debian testing for the base system and nix for getting precise versions of tools, which worked fairly well. But, I just converted my last Debian box to nixos
I'm using Debian testing in my daily driving desktop(s) for the last, checks notes, 20 years now?
Servers and headless boxes use stable and all machines are updated regularly. Most importantly, stable to stable (i.e. 12 to 13) upgrades takes around 5 minutes incl. final reboot.
I reinstalled Debian once. I had to migrate my system to 64 bit, and there was no clear way to move from 32 to 64 bit at that time. Well, once in 20 years is not bad, if you ask me.
I've had a couple outages due to major version upgrades: the worst was the major version update that introduced systemd, but I don't think I've ever irreparably lost a box. The main reason I like nixos now is:
1) nix means I have to install a lot fewer packages globally, which prevents accidentally using the wrong version of a package in a project.
2) I like having a version controlled record of what my systems look like (and I actually like the nix language)
I prefer to isolate my development environment already in various ways (virtualenv, containers or VM depending on the project) so I don't need that parts of NixOS. My systems are already run on a well-curated set of software. Two decades allowed me to fine tune that aspect pretty well.
While I understand the gravitas of NixOS, that modus operandi just is not for me. I'm happy and fine with my traditional way.
However, as I said, I understand and respect who use NixOS. I just don't share the same perspective and ideas. Hope it never breaks on you.
You're allowed to throw debian testing or arch in a chroot. The only thing that doesn't work well for is gaming since it's possible for the mesa version to diverge too far.
Currently Debian wants to deprecate GTK2. So even the guys that are interested in stability might start to see problems with Debian. The key problem of Linux is that it doesn't have a stable API to write long living GUI-software for. So far Debian was the way to go. Maybe recommending Debian will become even less popular soon.
Debian has multiple editions, if you want Arch, go for sid/testing.
Stable is stable as in "must not be broken at all costs" kind of stable.
basically everything works just fine. there's occasionally a rare crash or gnome reset where you need to login again, but other than that not many problems.
There are times where there are known bugs in Debian which are purposely not fixed but instead documented and worked around. That’s part of the stability promise. The behaviour shall not change which sometimes includes “bug as a feature”
Again, I like Debian a lot as a distro (much more than Ubuntu), but it's just not the same as a distro like Arch, even when you're on testing. Sid is close, but between Arch and sid... I've actually found fewer issues on Arch, and since there's an existing expectation that the community maintains and documents much of the software in AUR, there's almost always someone actually paying attention and updating things, rather than only getting around to it later.
It's not that Debian is a bad release, but it's the difference in a game on steam being completely unavailable for a few hours (Arch) or 10 days (Debian testing) due to an upstream issue.
I swapped a while back, mostly because I kept hitting issues that are accurately described and resolved by steps coming from Arch's community, even on distros like Debian and Fedora.
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The power in debian is still that Ubuntu has made it very popular for folks doing commercial/closed source releases to provide a .deb by default. Won't always work... but at least they're targeting your distro (or almost always, ubuntu, but usually close enough).
Same for Fedora with the Redhat enterprise connections.
But I've generally found that the community in Arch is doing a better job at actually dogfooding, testing, and fixing the commercial software than most of the companies that release it... which is sad, but reality.
Arch has plenty of its own issues, but "Stale software" isn't the one to challenge it on. Much better giving it a pass due to arch/platform support limitations, security or stability needs, etc... All those are entirely valid critiques, and reasonable drivers for sticking to something like Debian.
It's absolutely amazing how hostile Google is to releasing billing options that are reasonable, controllable, or even fucking understandable.
I want to do relatively simple things like:
1. Buy shit from you
2. For a controllable amount (ex - let me pick a limit on costs)
3. Without spending literally HOURS trying to understand 17 different fucking products, all overlapping, with myriad project configs, api keys that should work, then don't actually work, even though the billing links to the same damn api key page, and says it should work.
And frankly - you can't do any of it. No controls (at best delayed alerts). No clear access. No real product differentiation pages. No guides or onboarding pages to simplify the matter. No support. SHIT LOADS of completely incorrect and outdated docs, that link to dead pages, or say incorrect things.
So I won't buy shit from them. Period.
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