> knowledge of what should and shouldn't be, while important, bears no predictive power whatsoever as to what actually ends up happening.
I don’t know if you are intentionally being vague and existential here. However, context matters, and the predictive power is zero sounds unreasonable in the face of history.
I think humans learning that diseases were affecting us and thus leading to solutions like antibiotics and vaccines. It was not guaranteed, but I’m skeptical of the predictive power being zero.
Just for the record I went through this process this year with my spouse and a lawyer. My spouse did continue studying and had their i-130, i-485, and i-131, however the immigration office told our lawyer and said their F1 was no longer valid and that my spouse was under “authorized stay” not a visa any longer, especially for i-131.
The UK Gov has many service and process docs [1]. It started out that way but has grown rapidly and changed. Including a library for authentication, frontend templates and libraries, custom docker images.
I am 1,000,000% sure that many fintech companies are taking security very, very seriously (I am Stripe customer myself). But I don't think that has anything to do with statement "we are heavily regulated, and audited" - that is too funny.
In the wake of every scandal in finance is a wave of regulations. Finance is one of the most heavily regulated industries the is. That smart people keep finding new areas that haven't yet been regulated doesn't mean that the existing areas agent heavily regulated and audited.
If you give me $5, and then I pass it on to Bob for you, how many licenses and how much paper work do you think I should need to do that if I did that as a business? If you give me some money and I am a business, how much paperwork should that incur?
The big problem is that the exchanges are largely self-regulated. Or at least when I was in the field. A company I worked at sued a counterparty to our trade because we had proof of market manipulation. I won't say any of the details of who, etc, but the trades of the counterparty were so... plainly obvious of market manipulation in violation of the exchange's rules. At one point in that lawsuit the exchange's lawyers accidentally CC'd my bosses, showing that the exchange was colluding with the counterparty.
From what I was told, the issue for the exchange was that if they were found out to not enforce their self regulation then it'd be the precipitous event to the hammer coming down on them from regulatory bodies.
give me some examples of this “regulation” actually doing serious “regulating”? on paper, there may be 1,000’s of statutes and whatnots doing all sorts of regulations - in practice though… not to mention this industry is probably the most “self-regulated” when you actually dig in than most others…
> there was no impact on the UK from leaving. No negative impact on GDP, no negative impact on trade with the EU, no change to academic funding
I think that is a bit disingenuous
- Good exports are down significantly and exponentially while services exported are up significantly [1]. This has a massive impact on agriculture, fishing as well but it is its own can of worms historically.
- Migration between EU continues to drop and the promise that free movement would continue is not true [2]. There is a stagnation and decline in speciality medical jobs in the UK post Brexit [4] and a significant decrease in investment forecast and outrun [5]. These both have led to less than projected increases UK job numbers.
- The UK is now paying the EU £6.4bn a year for no benefit [3]
It's not disingenuous, the problem is you're not doing the comparisons correctly. Goods exports are down to both EU and non-EU countries. Look at the graph on page 10:
There is no divergence between goods exports between EU and non-EU after the end of the transition period. They continue to move in sync and certainly haven't "fallen exponentially". Therefore, this slight fall isn't due to Brexit. If you look at the graphs in (1) you can see that the big falls are things like textiles, footwear/headgear and "raw animal hides", which haven't been big exports from the UK for over a century!
Imports did diverge immediately after leaving, but got back in sync in around Jan 2023, so any effect was temporary (p11).
Services exports were totally unaffected by leaving. They continued to grow strongly on their prior trends after the hit caused by lockdowns (p13).
So the commentary in (1) is thus very misleading, but it's an academic paper so what do you expect. You can't rely on commentary from academics to understand this issue, they are driven by ideological agendas.
> the promise that free movement would continue is not true
Who do you think promised free movement would continue? Ending it was one of the goals of leaving.
> There is a stagnation and decline in speciality medical jobs in the UK post Brexit
The UK has been giving out visas to medical staff nearly for free for decades, there are tons of non-EU medical workers in the UK. What does this have to do with Brexit?
> The UK is now paying the EU £6.4bn a year for no benefit
I think that's not per year, it's an estimated total remaining intended to cover things like pension payments, and once paid (over a period of many years) it will stop being required. This number is much lower than what the UK paid as a member!
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